Weekend Box Office Predictions
Forecasts driven by cultural trend signals — with a public, scored track record.
This weekend's forecast
Weekend of Aug 7, 2026
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$207.3M
$176.2M–$238.4M
$247.6M
59 /100
9 scored weekends
Predicted top 10
opener holdover
| # | Film | Stage | Projected | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spider-Man: Brand New Day | holdover | $207.3M | $176.2M–$238.4M |
| 2 | The Odyssey | holdover | $29.9M | $25.4M–$34.4M |
| 3 | Toy Story 5 | holdover | $3.2M | $2.7M–$3.7M |
| 4 | Minions & Monsters | holdover | $2.6M | $2.2M–$3.0M |
| 5 | Moana | holdover | $2.4M | $2.0M–$2.7M |
| 6 | Hadestown: The Musical | holdover | $0.9M | $0.7M–$1.0M |
| 7 | The Invite | holdover | $0.5M | $0.4M–$0.6M |
| 8 | Evil Dead Burn | holdover | $0.3M | $0.3M–$0.4M |
| 9 | I Want Your Sex | holdover | $0.3M | $0.3M–$0.3M |
| 10 | Young Washington | holdover | $0.2M | $0.2M–$0.2M |
How these forecasts work
We backtested recent wide releases and found that a film's cross-platform reach — how broadly buzz breaks out across platforms in our trend engine — tracks opening gross at roughly +0.77 correlation, while the raw trend score is actually anti-correlated (−0.83) because it saturates on niche titles. Openers are projected from pre-release cross-platform reach × estimated screens; holdovers decay from last weekend's actuals, modulated by current trend momentum. Every forecast is scored against actuals after the weekend — the track record below is real, not curated.
Track record
Weekend of Jul 31, 2026
8 films scored
Called #1: Spider-Man: Brand New Day ✓
Weekend total error -59% · in-range 38%
Weekend of Jul 24, 2026
8 films scored
Called #1: The Odyssey ✓
Weekend total error -24% · in-range 13%
Weekend of Jul 17, 2026
10 films scored
Called #1: The Odyssey ✓
Weekend total error -33% · in-range 20%
Weekend of Jul 10, 2026
9 films scored
Called #1: Moana ✓
Weekend total error +34% · in-range 11%
Weekend of Jul 3, 2026
9 films scored
Called #1: Minions & Monsters ✓
Weekend total error +45% · in-range 11%
Weekend of Jun 26, 2026
8 films scored
Called #1: Toy Story 5 ✓
Weekend total error +2% · in-range 38%
Weekend of Jun 19, 2026
8 films scored
Called #1: Toy Story 5 ✓
Weekend total error -49% · in-range 25%
Weekend of Jun 12, 2026
6 films scored
Called #1: Disclosure Day ✓
Weekend total error +24% · in-range 50%
Weekend of Jun 5, 2026
7 films scored
Called #1: Scary Movie ✓
Weekend total error +10% · in-range 29%