Weekend Box Office Predictions
Forecasts driven by cultural trend signals — with a public, scored track record.
This weekend's forecast
Weekend of Oct 9, 2026
The Social Reckoning
$23.5M
$20.0M–$27.8M
$102.1M
49 /100
18 scored weekends
Predicted top 10
opener holdover
| # | Film | Stage | Projected | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Social Reckoning | opening | $23.5M | $20.0M–$27.8M |
| 2 | Verity | holdover | $16.1M | $13.7M–$18.5M |
| 3 | Animals | opening | $9.9M | $8.4M–$11.7M |
| 4 | The Beast | opening | $9.9M | $8.4M–$11.7M |
| 5 | The Sixty Year Mission: How Star Trek Changed Television and the World | opening | $9.9M | $8.4M–$11.7M |
| 6 | My Undesirable Friends: Part II - Exile | opening | $9.9M | $8.4M–$11.7M |
| 7 | The Fish Don't Care When It Rains | opening | $6.6M | $5.6M–$7.8M |
| 8 | Heart of the Beast | holdover | $5.4M | $4.6M–$6.3M |
| 9 | Resident Evil | holdover | $5.4M | $4.6M–$6.2M |
| 10 | CAMPEÓN | expanding | $5.4M | $4.6M–$6.4M |
How these forecasts work
We backtested recent wide releases and found that a film's cross-platform reach — how broadly buzz breaks out across platforms in our trend engine — tracks opening gross at roughly +0.77 correlation, while the raw trend score is actually anti-correlated (−0.83) because it saturates on niche titles. Openers are projected from pre-release cross-platform reach × estimated screens; holdovers decay from last weekend's actuals, modulated by current trend momentum. Every forecast is scored against actuals after the weekend — the track record below is real, not curated.
Track record
Weekend of Oct 2, 2026
8 films scored
Called #1: Digger → actual Verity
Weekend total error +97% · in-range 38%
Weekend of Sep 25, 2026
7 films scored
Called #1: Resident Evil → actual Avengers: Endgame
Weekend total error -50% · in-range 43%
Weekend of Sep 18, 2026
7 films scored
Called #1: Resident Evil ✓
Weekend total error +75% · in-range 0%
Weekend of Sep 11, 2026
7 films scored
Called #1: Practical Magic 2 ✓
Weekend total error +220% · in-range 14%
Weekend of Sep 4, 2026
5 films scored
Called #1: Spider-Man: Brand New Day ✓
Weekend total error -16% · in-range 0%
Weekend of Aug 28, 2026
6 films scored
Called #1: The Dog Stars → actual Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Weekend total error +109% · in-range 17%
Weekend of Aug 21, 2026
8 films scored
Called #1: Mutiny → actual Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Weekend total error +155% · in-range 25%
Weekend of Aug 14, 2026
6 films scored
Called #1: Spider-Man: Brand New Day ✓
Weekend total error -9% · in-range 17%
Weekend of Aug 7, 2026
6 films scored
Called #1: Spider-Man: Brand New Day ✓
Weekend total error +24% · in-range 17%
Weekend of Jul 31, 2026
8 films scored
Called #1: Spider-Man: Brand New Day ✓
Weekend total error -59% · in-range 38%
Weekend of Jul 24, 2026
8 films scored
Called #1: The Odyssey ✓
Weekend total error -24% · in-range 13%
Weekend of Jul 17, 2026
10 films scored
Called #1: The Odyssey ✓
Weekend total error -33% · in-range 20%
Weekend of Jul 10, 2026
9 films scored
Called #1: Moana ✓
Weekend total error +34% · in-range 11%
Weekend of Jul 3, 2026
9 films scored
Called #1: Minions & Monsters ✓
Weekend total error +45% · in-range 11%
Weekend of Jun 26, 2026
8 films scored
Called #1: Toy Story 5 ✓
Weekend total error +2% · in-range 38%
Weekend of Jun 19, 2026
8 films scored
Called #1: Toy Story 5 ✓
Weekend total error -49% · in-range 25%
Weekend of Jun 12, 2026
6 films scored
Called #1: Disclosure Day ✓
Weekend total error +24% · in-range 50%
Weekend of Jun 5, 2026
7 films scored
Called #1: Scary Movie ✓
Weekend total error +10% · in-range 29%